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Model Output

The output from the most recent run of my revised SIR model are posted in the table below. I can run this model for any country in the world and any state listed on the Plot By State Tab, so please let me know if you have any requests.

The model is run every Monday morning, and will be run more frequently if needed – usually when a significant surge in cases occurs. My goal is to have results of each model run posted by 9 AM Pacific Time.

Additional Model Information

The table below contains just the output of the single model run and does not necessarily reflect what my personal predictions are.
The model takes into account all social distancing restrictions through about 1 to 2 weeks before the model run. The 1 to 2 week offset is due to the lag between when a restriction is changed and when its effects appear in the data.
The model assumes that all social distancing restrictions that are in place 1 to 2 weeks before the date of the model run remain in place for the entire period that the model projects
The Apex Date indicates that the apex or peak is projected to occur at some point in the range shown. The apex will not last the entire length of that range.
The "Earliest Start of Reopening" column has been removed because the federal guidelines were completely ignored in the United States.
View previous or older model runs by selecting a model run from the dropdown menu located below the table.

Time Series Plots for Each State

Beginning with the 25 April, 2020 run, I am including time-series plots of the actual case counts and the model projections for each state.

Click on the link below to access the model output plot repository. Click on the date of the model run you wish to view, and then click on the state you wish to view.

View Time Series Plots

Model Run: 7 March, 2022

There are no general comments associated with this model run.

Confidence in the Model Output

Dates: High. The model has a very good grasp on apex dates.
Case Counts: High. The model retains incredibly high run-to-run stability for new cases counts.

Possible Anomalies in the Model Output

There are no oddities or anomalies with the data in this run.

State/Province	Actual Cases 6 March	Projected Cases 21 March	Projected Cases 7 April	Projected Apex Date
Alabama	1,282,945	1,290,000 to 1,562,000	1,291,000 to 1,562,000	2 Mar, 2021 to 21 Jun, 2021
Alaska	240,789	243,000 to 336,000	244,000 to 336,000	12 Apr, 2021 to 9 Oct, 2021
Alberta	527,604	532,000 to 645,000	532,000 to 645,000	23 Jan, 2021 to 29 Apr, 2021
Arizona	1,980,769	1,993,000 to 2,414,000	1,994,000 to 2,414,000	20 Mar, 2021 to 17 Jul, 2021
Arkansas	823,210	828,000 to 1,002,000	828,000 to 1,002,000	12 Feb, 2021 to 26 May, 2021
Baja California	129,988	130,000 to 181,000	131,000 to 181,000	28 Apr, 2021 to 25 Sep, 2021
British Columbia	349,944	353,000 to 489,000	355,000 to 489,000	21 Apr, 2021 to 6 Nov, 2021
California	9,005,322	9,059,000 to 11,019,000	9,075,000 to 11,020,000	12 May, 2021 to 4 Oct, 2021
Campeche	33,445	33,000 to 46,000	33,000 to 46,000	4 Feb, 2021 to 24 Apr, 2021
Chihuahua	125,256	125,000 to 173,000	126,000 to 174,000	26 Apr, 2021 to 21 Sep, 2021
Ciudad de México	1,363,836	1,379,000 to 1,675,000	1,380,000 to 1,675,000	6 May, 2021 to 26 Aug, 2021
Coahuila de Zaragoza	143,618	144,000 to 200,000	145,000 to 201,000	5 May, 2021 to 7 Oct, 2021
Colorado	1,317,447	1,333,000 to 1,614,000	1,333,000 to 1,614,000	25 Feb, 2021 to 17 Jun, 2021
Connecticut	724,833	730,000 to 884,000	730,000 to 884,000	5 Feb, 2021 to 17 May, 2021
Delaware	257,270	257,000 to 312,000	257,000 to 312,000	29 Dec, 2020 to 21 Mar, 2021
District of Columbia	134,623	135,000 to 185,000	135,000 to 185,000	28 Feb, 2021 to 28 Jul, 2021
Estado de México	527,402	536,000 to 788,000	545,000 to 788,000	25 Jul, 2021 to 4 Mar, 2022
Florida	5,858,052	5,877,000 to 7,136,000	5,885,000 to 7,137,000	28 Apr, 2021 to 12 Sep, 2021
Georgia	2,470,384	2,491,000 to 3,018,000	2,493,000 to 3,018,000	24 Mar, 2021 to 25 Jul, 2021
Hawaii	237,363	239,000 to 329,000	240,000 to 329,000	8 Apr, 2021 to 5 Oct, 2021
Idaho	432,483	442,000 to 618,000	445,000 to 618,000	14 May, 2021 to 11 Dec, 2021
Illinois	3,037,199	3,069,000 to 3,720,000	3,072,000 to 3,720,000	2 Apr, 2021 to 6 Aug, 2021
Indiana	1,683,739	1,694,000 to 2,051,000	1,695,000 to 2,052,000	14 Mar, 2021 to 7 Jul, 2021
Iowa	755,547	764,000 to 1,089,000	772,000 to 1,089,000	14 Jun, 2021 to 6 Feb, 2022
Kansas	768,243	775,000 to 1,107,000	784,000 to 1,107,000	17 Jun, 2021 to 10 Feb, 2022
Kentucky	1,286,697	1,314,000 to 1,938,000	1,337,000 to 1,939,000	17 Jul, 2021 to 8 Apr, 2022
Louisiana	1,164,620	1,167,000 to 1,413,000	1,168,000 to 1,413,000	21 Feb, 2021 to 10 Jun, 2021
Maine	230,720	236,000 to 325,000	237,000 to 325,000	4 Apr, 2021 to 30 Sep, 2021
Manitoba	131,526	135,000 to 185,000	135,000 to 185,000	9 Mar, 2021 to 6 Aug, 2021
Maryland	1,004,539	1,015,000 to 1,465,000	1,028,000 to 1,465,000	27 Jun, 2021 to 6 Mar, 2022
Massachusetts	1,675,767	1,679,000 to 2,033,000	1,680,000 to 2,033,000	4 Mar, 2021 to 28 Jun, 2021
Michigan	2,365,827	2,394,000 to 2,901,000	2,396,000 to 2,901,000	26 Mar, 2021 to 26 Jul, 2021
Minnesota	1,417,811	1,432,000 to 1,734,000	1,433,000 to 1,734,000	6 Mar, 2021 to 27 Jun, 2021
Mississippi	791,208	795,000 to 963,000	796,000 to 963,000	10 Feb, 2021 to 24 May, 2021
Missouri	1,404,926	1,414,000 to 1,712,000	1,415,000 to 1,712,000	8 Mar, 2021 to 29 Jun, 2021
Montana	271,030	280,000 to 387,000	281,000 to 387,000	18 Apr, 2021 to 22 Oct, 2021
Nebraska	476,194	483,000 to 677,000	486,000 to 677,000	23 May, 2021 to 24 Dec, 2021
Nevada	685,346	694,000 to 982,000	700,000 to 983,000	5 Jun, 2021 to 23 Jan, 2022
New Brunswick	38,937	41,000 to 56,000	41,000 to 56,000	2 Jan, 2021 to 1 Apr, 2021
New Hampshire	291,137	302,000 to 418,000	304,000 to 418,000	18 Apr, 2021 to 26 Oct, 2021
New Jersey	2,174,473	2,187,000 to 2,649,000	2,188,000 to 2,649,000	19 Mar, 2021 to 17 Jul, 2021
New Mexico	513,311	514,000 to 622,000	514,000 to 622,000	28 Jan, 2021 to 2 May, 2021
New York	4,937,052	4,954,000 to 6,010,000	4,959,000 to 6,010,000	18 Apr, 2021 to 30 Aug, 2021
Newfoundland and Labrador	25,728	28,000 to 38,000	28,000 to 38,000	29 Nov, 2020 to 6 Feb, 2021
North Carolina	2,598,014	2,641,000 to 3,200,000	2,643,000 to 3,200,000	30 Mar, 2021 to 1 Aug, 2021
North Dakota	238,753	241,000 to 293,000	241,000 to 293,000	1 Jan, 2021 to 24 Mar, 2021
Nova Scotia	46,795	48,000 to 66,000	48,000 to 66,000	3 Jan, 2021 to 10 Apr, 2021
Nuevo León	309,021	310,000 to 441,000	313,000 to 441,000	21 Jun, 2021 to 31 Dec, 2021
Ohio	2,659,498	2,675,000 to 3,242,000	2,677,000 to 3,242,000	30 Mar, 2021 to 1 Aug, 2021
Oklahoma	1,024,471	1,035,000 to 1,254,000	1,036,000 to 1,254,000	25 Feb, 2021 to 12 Jun, 2021
Ontario	1,126,445	1,157,000 to 1,678,000	1,174,000 to 1,679,000	1 Jul, 2021 to 17 Mar, 2022
Oregon	696,717	706,000 to 1,000,000	713,000 to 1,000,000	6 Jun, 2021 to 25 Jan, 2022
Pennsylvania	2,763,589	2,785,000 to 3,374,000	2,787,000 to 3,375,000	30 Mar, 2021 to 1 Aug, 2021
Québec	929,038	942,000 to 1,354,000	954,000 to 1,355,000	23 Jun, 2021 to 26 Feb, 2022
Quintana Roo	91,064	91,000 to 125,000	91,000 to 125,000	7 Apr, 2021 to 15 Aug, 2021
Rhode Island	356,783	357,000 to 432,000	357,000 to 432,000	11 Jan, 2021 to 9 Apr, 2021
Saskatchewan	128,289	130,000 to 179,000	131,000 to 179,000	4 Mar, 2021 to 31 Jul, 2021
Sinaloa	119,882	121,000 to 168,000	122,000 to 168,000	24 Apr, 2021 to 17 Sep, 2021
Sonora	162,431	164,000 to 228,000	165,000 to 228,000	12 May, 2021 to 21 Oct, 2021
South Carolina	1,462,846	1,474,000 to 1,784,000	1,474,000 to 1,784,000	7 Mar, 2021 to 28 Jun, 2021
South Dakota	236,276	236,000 to 287,000	236,000 to 287,000	1 Jan, 2021 to 22 Mar, 2021
Tamaulipas	141,164	141,000 to 195,000	142,000 to 196,000	3 May, 2021 to 4 Oct, 2021
Tennessee	2,012,072	2,023,000 to 2,450,000	2,024,000 to 2,450,000	19 Mar, 2021 to 16 Jul, 2021
Texas	6,639,270	6,692,000 to 8,132,000	6,702,000 to 8,133,000	5 May, 2021 to 22 Sep, 2021
Utah	924,248	929,000 to 1,124,000	929,000 to 1,124,000	17 Feb, 2021 to 2 Jun, 2021
Vermont	113,107	114,000 to 156,000	114,000 to 156,000	21 Feb, 2021 to 13 Jul, 2021
Virginia	1,645,791	1,675,000 to 2,028,000	1,676,000 to 2,028,000	12 Mar, 2021 to 6 Jul, 2021
Washington	1,430,235	1,449,000 to 1,754,000	1,449,000 to 1,754,000	26 Feb, 2021 to 19 Jun, 2021
West Virginia	492,276	498,000 to 699,000	502,000 to 700,000	25 May, 2021 to 27 Dec, 2021
Wisconsin	1,574,581	1,581,000 to 1,914,000	1,582,000 to 1,914,000	9 Mar, 2021 to 2 Jul, 2021
Wyoming	155,426	156,000 to 189,000	156,000 to 189,000	15 Dec, 2020 to 26 Feb, 2021
Yucatán	108,425	108,000 to 132,000	108,000 to 132,000	21 Jan, 2021 to 29 Mar, 2021
United States Total	79,271,466	79,346,000 to 97,937,000	79,493,000 to 97,945,000	N/A

View Previous Model Runs

Model Performance

I have a firm belief that modelers should both stand by and hold themselves accountable for their model's predictions. This belief not only promotes better models, but also builds trust and reduces both false hope and doomsday scenarios that inaccurate models may forecast.

On this page, you will find a complete report of how each run of my SIR model performed, including both and overall and state-by-state report of how the model's two-week and one-month projections compare to the actual data on those dates. I take great pride in my work and hold myself to the highest of standards, so if the model performance is not up to snuff, please let me know.

While not every model run is going to be perfect, I hope the model can achieve the following goals.

2 Week Projections: 65% correct rate, with 80% of incorrect projections missing by 5,000 cases or less.
1 Month Projections: 50% correct rate, with 50% of incorrect projections missing by 5,000 cases or less.

Note: Because the 2 week actual case data is required to evaluate the model's performance, only model runs more than two weeks old are available for viewing on this page. If a model run is more than two weeks old, but less than one month, you will see "N/A" in the one month performance statistics.

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Model Run:

General Comments on Day of Model Run

Confidence in Case Counts on Day of Model Run

Confidence in Apex Dates on Day of Model Run

Possible Anomalies in the Model Output

Overall Model Performace

2 Week Projections
Correct Projections
Incorrect Projections
Average Miss
Median Miss
Smallest Miss
Largest Miss
Misses by < 1,000 Cases
Misses by 1,000 to 5,000
Misses by > 5,000 Cases

1 Month Projections
Correct Projections
Incorrect Projections
Average Miss
Median Miss
Smallest Miss
Largest Miss
Misses by < 1,000 Cases
Misses by 1,000 to 5,000	XX out of YY (ZZ%)
Misses by > 5,000 Cases

State-by-State Performance

State/Province	Actual Cases	Predicted Cases	Actual Cases	Predicted Cases	Actual Cases

US State Reopening

The purpose of this tab is to provide general information for how close states might be to meeting criteria for re-opening, based on the "Opening Up America Again" guidelines that the White House and the Centers for Disease Control published in mid-April, 2020.

This tab is based on the actual observed data. To view model outputs, please click on the "Model Output" tab.

Please note that I do not have data for certain criteria which the White House and CDC advises, so this page cannot say for certain whether states meet all criteria to reopen.

This tab provides:

A table of 3-day comparing moving averages for new cases today vs. 2 weeks ago, normalized per 1 million population
A table of 3-day comparing moving averages for new cases today vs. 2 weeks ago, for the entire population
Tables showing the 5 highest daily increases in confirmed cases and deaths of the entire pandemic for each state.

Select a Table to View

Total New Case Counts

This table contains trends of new cases over the past two weeks for each state's entire population. The same data is available normalized per 1 million population in each state.

The table is sorted in descending order by the average of daily new cases per 1 million people for the past three days. States at the top of the list are furthest from meeting criteria to reopen, while states at the bottom are closest to meeting criteria to reopen.

Target Threshholds to Move to Next Phase of Reopening

Governments, health experts, and modelers are using the normalized case data per 1 million population to make assessments. Please select "Cases Per 1 Million Population" from the dropdown menu above to view target threshholds for moving to the next phase of reopening.

	State	Avg Daily New Cases 18 – 20 Jun	Avg Daily New Cases 2 – 4 Jul	14-Day General Trend	14-Day Max Daily Increase

New Case Counts Per 1 Million Population

One of the most critical requirements to reopen each state can be found in this table: the 3-day average daily new cases per 1 million population. This metric is so critical because it defines how each state's health care system can handle any resurgence in COVID-19 cases that arise as a result of reopening.

Target Threshholds to Move to Next Phase of Reopening

3-Day average daily new cases 2 weeks ago should be minimal.
3-Day average daily new cases today must be less than 5-7 new cases per million people per day.
The 14-day general trend must be downward.
The largest increase in new cases in the last 14 days (rightmost column) must be less than 5-7. This column is in units of new cases per million people per day.
Please note that the CDC/White House guidelines require more threshholds than are just in this table to be met before moving to the next phase of reopening.

	State	Avg Daily New Cases 19 – 21 Jun	Avg Daily New Cases 2 – 4 Jul	14-Day General Trend	14-Day Max Daily Increase

Largest Daily Increases in New Cases and Deaths

These tables show the five largest increases in daily new cases and daily new deaths since the start of the pandemic. Their purpose is to shed light on if/when the peak has possibly occurred.

I have a few tips to keep in mind when looking at these tables:

Each wave of the pandemic often has several peaks as part of the main peak, especially if the peak is more of a plateau, which we are currently seeing in many states. This tool will likely not find them all.
Use the "New Cases" and "New Deaths" plots on the "Plot By State" tab to confirm if/when the peak has occurred.
Just because the tables are showing the peak may have occurred does not necessarily mean it actually has!
We likely won't know that we actually hit the peak until at least 2 to 3 weeks after the peak hits.
These tables will likely be updated as the pandemic progresses to show the maximum daily increases in cases and deaths over the past month or so.

Target Threshholds to Identify the Peak

At least 4 out of the 5 dates should all be clustered around each other
All 5 dates should have occurred at least 14 days ago

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Time Series Plots for Each State

Model Run: 7 March, 2022

Confidence in the Model Output

Possible Anomalies in the Model Output

View Previous Model Runs

Model Performance

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Model Run:

General Comments on Day of Model Run

Confidence in Case Counts on Day of Model Run

Confidence in Apex Dates on Day of Model Run

Possible Anomalies in the Model Output

Overall Model Performace

State-by-State Performance

US State Reopening

Select a Table to View

Total New Case Counts

Target Threshholds to Move to Next Phase of Reopening

New Case Counts Per 1 Million Population

Target Threshholds to Move to Next Phase of Reopening

Largest Daily Increases in New Cases and Deaths

Target Threshholds to Identify the Peak

More

Numerical Modeling

The SIR Model

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